-by Dan Schweizer, contributing writer
Ryan Fitzpatrick is a force of nature, a hurricane on the football field; when he makes landfall he will absolutely shred the defense in his path, but often veers off to the side and causes minimal damage. What better place for a hurricane to reside than in Miami? The Dolphins were a team with one of the worst offensive lines in the National Football League, that was trading away half its offensive weapons in the midst of a rebuild, and whose fans were chanting “Tank for Tua” when Fitzmagic came to town. Through 8 weeks in 2019 the Dolphins were winless and on pace to get that #1 overall pick, but when they came up against the perpetually bad New York Jets it was time for the ol’ Fitzmagic to shine through as #14 put up 288 yards and 3 TD’s for the team’s first win of the season. As we all know, the Dolphins did not end up with the #1 overall pick for the 2020 NFL Draft but as fate would have it Tua Tagovailoa suffered a major hip injury which made it possible for Miami to take him at #5 overall. Fitzpatrick knew he was a bridge QB; he knew everything I stated back in that third sentence, but he still worked his butt off for his team and THAT is why he has been hurt so badly by Brian Flores’s decision to bench him ahead of their Week 8 matchup with the Los Angeles Rams.
Let’s start by talking about why Ryan did NOT deserve this benching. The Dolphins (as of this writing) sit at 3-3, are 2nd place in the AFC East, and have not put up less than 24 points since stumbling out of the gate in Week 1 (a 21-11 Loss to New England). Their last two games have been dominant wins against the San Francisco 49ers (43-17) and Jets (24-0) in which #14 was an absolute STUD. In Week 5 Fitz went 22-28, for 350 yards, and 3 TD’s. The Fitzmagic fizzled a little in Week 6, but he still put up 3 TD’s on the day while riding the coattails of a stifling defensive performance. Through 6 games this season Ryan Fitzpatrick sits at 70.1% pass completion (5th in the NFL), 1,535 passing yards, and 10 TD’s to 7 INT’s; those numbers are on pace for 4,000+ passing yards, 26 TD’s, and 18 INT’s which - if we we're talking about Mitch Trubisky or Carson Wentz - is a stellar year. At 37 years old, Fitzpatrick is playing some of the best football of his career, and to top it off he has a team behind him that truly has his back. By all accounts, Fitz was a key component of changing the culture in that Miami locker room and has been an exemplary leader for the team.
Now for the difficult part; why Flores made the right call. When you’re going to make a change at QB, if you CAN wait until the Bye Week that is the best time to make the move. For a rookie, that extra week of prep goes a long way. For the offense, that extra week of finding a rhythm with a new guy under center is huge. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a great leader and he’s also used to being that journeyman QB that gets passed over for the next guy at some point, so you know he will continue to be that leader in the locker room even after the demotion. There are also several deficiencies in your offense already, and you’re not fully out of that rebuild in Miami, so plugging in the future of your franchise at QB allows you to evaluate the talent around him and start planning your off-season moves. This is not a playoffs-or-bust team, so success in 2020 isn’t really on their mind as much as the future is.
Now, let’s talk about why Tua did not NEED to be called up so early. We’ll start by stating the obvious: Tua suffered a dislocated hip and posterior wall fracture on November 16th, 2019. That was 352 days before he will be making his first NFL Start against a vaunted Rams pass rush that includes 2-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald. No professional athlete can live in fear of old injuries, but when that injury almost ended your career less than 1 year ago it should be a thought at the forefront of your mind. Tua is extremely athletic, with a good arm and decent speed, but the kid is not quick - a fact that is evident when you watch him get run down by two defensive linemen leading up to that injury. Aaron Donald? Yeah, that man is QUICK and that man is BIG. To top it off, Miami will be starting rookies at both right guard and right tackle this weekend and with Tua being a Southpaw that means his blindside will be protected by inexperienced linemen hoping to hold off one of the league’s best pass rushers. Good luck.
Let’s look beyond the injury though and look at a semi-controversial comparison method: quarterbacks that didn’t start their rookie seasons vs one’s that did. For the sake of brevity I will be listing notable quarterbacks that did not start for all or most of their rookie year: Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes. Now let’s look at some that did start during their rookie years: Mitch Trubisky, Carson Wentz, Johnny Manziel, Josh Rosen, DeShone Kizer, Baker Mayfield, Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert. As you can see the second list is a real mixed bag of results, but heavily weighed against the quarterback while the first list has a substantial success rate (granted, in a small sample size).
This writer genuinely hopes Tua has a long, great career in the NFL and I would be ecstatic to be proven wrong by Brian Flores and the Miami Dolphins, but when you weigh all the evidence it seems to be pointing to foul play down in South Beach. Tua Time is coming too soon and Ryan Fitzpatrick is just the first casualty of an impatient front office, and a fan base that is starving for something to show up and cheer for.